States IQ chart - weighted by population

"Why don't you do a weighted average based on population and then re-do the chart?"

"Nice work on correcting the IQ chart. Have you considered also weighting by population and what that would do to the band color effect?"

 

Fortunately, the same day those suggestions came, this email also arrived:

Subject:

Just saw your site.

Date:

Tue, 9 Nov 2004 10:02:12 -0500

From:

"Waage, Douglas" <Douglas.Waage@yale.edu>

To:

vansloan@yahoo.com

Dear VanSloan@yahoo.com,

I'm currently a first year MBA student at the Yale School of Management (currently in my probability class) and I just saw your site: http://sq.4mg.com/stateIQ-income.htm and I think it is very interesting. My professor referenced the biased site http://chrisevans3d.com/files/iq.htm as an example, but after doing some research on the web, it seems a bit skewed.

I like your analysis better, but I think it is flawed as well, from a statistical perspective.

In your far right column, you show %REP-DEM, which is the % of states that went for Bush verses Kerry. While this analysis would be a correct method if all 50 states and D.C. had the same populations (and hence the same E.V.), the populations of the states vary greatly from state to state. Saying that California and South Dakota should be weighted the same when California's population is 46 times larger than the population of South Dakota is not a good assumption. Using your method greatly overstates the intelligence of those who voted for Bush and likewise understates the intelligence of those who voted for Kerry (since Bush won lots of small states and Kerry mostly larger states).

When you weight each state for population (http://www.census.gov/statab/www/part6.html) you get a much different picture:

STATE

IQ

Income/ person IN 2003

2004 vote

2003 Pop.

Pop. %

Pop. X IQ

% Dem

% Rep

New Hampshire

104

34,702

Kerry

1,287,687

0.44%

133919448

100.00%

0.00%

Massachusetts

103

39,815

Kerry

6,433,422

2.21%

662642466

Oregon

103

29,340

Kerry

3,559,596

1.22%

366638388

100.00%

0.00%

Wisconsin

103

30,898

Kerry

5,472,299

1.88%

563646797

Colorado

102

34,238

Bush

4,550,688

1.56%

464170176

62.15%

37.85%

Connecticut

102

43,173

Kerry

3,483,372

1.20%

355303944

Illinois

102

33,590

Kerry

12,653,544

4.35%

1290661488

Iowa

102

29,043

Bush

2,944,062

1.01%

300294324

Kansas

102

29,935

Bush

2,723,507

0.94%

277797714

Minnesota

102

34,443

Kerry

5,059,375

1.74%

516056250

Montana

102

25,920

Bush

917,621

0.32%

93597342

Nebraska

102

30,758

Bush

1,739,291

0.60%

177407682

North Dakota

102

29,204

Bush

633,837

0.22%

64651374

Oklahoma

102

26,656

Bush

3,511,532

1.21%

358176264

Vermont

102

30,740

Kerry

619,107

0.21%

63148914

Washington

102

33,332

Kerry

6,131,445

2.11%

625407390

Alaska

101

33,568

Bush

648,818

0.22%

65530618

62.75%

37.25%

Maryland

101

37,331

Kerry

5,508,909

1.89%

556399809

Michigan

101

30,439

Kerry

10,079,985

3.47%

1018078485

Missouri

101

28,252

Bush

5,704,484

1.96%

576152884

New York

101

36,574

Kerry

19,190,115

6.60%

1938201615

Ohio

101

29,944

Bush

11,435,798

3.93%

1155015598

Utah

101

24,977

Bush

2,351,467

0.81%

237498167

Wyoming

101

32,808

Bush

501,242

0.17%

50625442

Arizona

100

26,838

Bush

5,580,811

1.92%

558081100

75.46%

24.54%

California

100

33,749

Kerry

35,484,453

12.20%

3548445300

Idaho

100

25,811

Bush

1,366,332

0.47%

136633200

Maine

100

28,831

Kerry

1,305,728

0.45%

130572800

Nevada

100

31,266

Bush

2,241,154

0.77%

224115400

New Jersey

100

40,427

Kerry

8,638,396

2.97%

863839600

Pennsylvania

100

31,998

Kerry

12,365,455

4.25%

1236545500

Rhode Island

100

31,996

Kerry

1,076,164

0.37%

107616400

South Dakota

100

29,234

Bush

764,309

0.26%

76430900

Virginia

100

33,671

Bush

7,386,330

2.54%

738633000

West Virginia

100

24,379

Bush

1,810,354

0.62%

181035400

Delaware

99

32,810

Kerry

817,491

0.28%

80931609

25.09%

74.91%

Hawaii

99

30,913

Kerry

1,257,608

0.43%

124503192

Indiana

99

28,783

Bush

6,195,643

2.13%

613368657

Arkansas

98

24,289

Bush

2,725,714

0.94%

267119972

0.00%

100.00%

Florida

98

30,446

Bush

17,019,068

5.85%

1667868664

Alabama

97

26,338

Bush

4,500,752

1.55%

436572944

0.00%

100.00%

Georgia

97

29,442

Bush

8,684,715

2.99%

842417355

Kentucky

97

26,252

Bush

4,117,827

1.42%

399429219

Louisiana

97

26,100

Bush

4,496,334

1.55%

436144398

North Carolina

97

28,235

Bush

8,407,248

2.89%

815503056

Tennessee

97

28,455

Bush

5,841,748

2.01%

566649556

Texas

97

28,372

Bush

22,118,509

7.61%

2145495373

New Mexico

96

25,541

Bush

1,874,614

0.64%

179962944

0.00%

100.00%

District of Columbia

95

48,342

Kerry

563,384

0.19%

53521480

100.00%

0.00%

Mississippi

94

23,448

Bush

2,881,281

0.99%

270840414

0.00%

100.00%

South Carolina

94

26,132

Bush

4,147,152

1.43%

389832288

As you can see, after weighting each state for population, there is a much stronger correlation between IQ of a state's population and voting democratic than your analysis suggests.

Since it appears that you want your site to show as accurate representation of the data as possible, I thought you'd be interested in this.

Thanks for your time.

Sincerely,

Doug Waage

Sloan responds: Doug, thank you so much for your timely, useful chart. It now is featured on my new http://SQ.4mg.com/weighting.htm webpage. Your work should stimulate further analysis of the data. One concern I have is that some will continue to massage the statistics until it fits their own political leanings!

Go to: IQ's of Bush vs Kerry voters - based on race and population

Go to: 2004 Red-Blue states shown with their IQ's

Go to: Calculations of State IQ's

Go to: Home page

Comments to: VanSloan@yahoo.com

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